Nomura has raised India’s gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2022 by 0.7 percentage points (pp) to 7.7 percent in spite of the second wave of Covid infections that brought the economic activity in most cities to a standstill in the past few months. The research and brokerage house has rejigged the forecasts for consumer price inflation (CPI) and current account deficit.
“We raise our 2021 and 2022 current account (CA) deficit forecasts to 1.5 percent and 1.3 percent of GDP, respectively (from 1.1 percent and 0.8 percent), and CPI inflation to 5 percent and 5.3 percent (from 4.9 percent in both years). We also pencil-in an additional 25bp repo rate hike in Q3 2022,” according to a note of Nomura.
The first flush of growth indicators for May, according to Nomura, suggest a significant hit to consumption and services, with the manufacturing and export sectors being more resilient. The overall impact, Varma and Nandi said, is turning out to be less than during the first wave
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