Tag: jefferies

Markets have found it tough to cling to higher ground. CHRISTOPHER WOOD, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies advises that investors should look to sell stocks on a rally in the short term. What will see the markets rally is a sudden end to the Russia – Ukraine conflict as it will ease supply pressure across commodities, he tells. He also suggested that the bet for a sustained equity market rally before the 2022 end is a possible change in the US Fed's language.

A rise in oil prices – if driven by a surge in demand/consumption – is a positive for equity markets, according to analysts. Analysts at Jefferies estimate that every $10 per barrel (bbl) rise in the Brent oil price raises India’s trade deficit by around 40-50 basis points (bps). Yet, they believe that the equity markets should be able to digest the recent spurt. “A $70/bbl of crude would have a 100-120 bps impact on current account deficit (CAD). Improving domestic demand on a low base would drive CAD to 1.5 percent in fiscal 2021-22 (FY22) versus a 0.7 percent surplus this year. However, we still expect the balance of payments (BoP) to be a positive around 1.2 percent as capital account (FDI, ECB and NRI deposits) should see over $80 billion surpluses,” wrote Mahesh Nandurkar, managing director at Jefferies in a recently co-authored note with Abhinav Sinha. Read more

Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies has maintained a bullish view on Indian equities for 2021 in spite of the runaway market rally since March 2020. "GREED & fear still likes the Indian stock market this year. The key reason is the scale of the cyclical recovery in the coming fiscal year as a result of the dramatic collapse in growth in the second quarter of last calendar year when the real gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 23.9 percent YoY," Wood wrote in his recent weekly note to investors, GREED & fear. "The economic downturn is not going to happen in GREED & fear’s view since the vaccine rollout implies the opposite and the resulting unleashing of pent-up demand, which will be given further momentum by the sheer scale of the Covid-19 stimulus announced last week by President Joe Biden," Wood wrote. Read more