The V-shaped economic recovery in 2020 won’t be repeated after this year’s Covid-19 carnage according to some analysts.
Government statistics released 0n 31st May showed 1.6% growth in GDP from a year earlier in the March quarter, before a deadly second wave of infections. But this expansion, an improvement over the 0.5% rate in the previous three months, is a statistical artifact. A better metric is seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth, which Capital Economics calculates at 0.7%, a sharp slowdown from 9.5% in the December quarter.
During the current surge in cases, there have been only local restrictions on physical activity. That’s making some analysts optimistic about the resumption of growth that will inevitably occur when the coronavirus fully recedes. Yet there are several crucial differences from last year that could make it harder for India to bounce back.
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