Tag: global gdp

The global economy is in a new expansion cycle and output will return to pre-coronavirus crisis levels by the fourth quarter, according to Morgan Stanley economists. “We have greater confidence in our call for a V-shaped recovery, given recent upside surprises in growth data and policy action,” economists led by Chetan Ahya wrote in a mid-year outlook research note on June 14. Predicting a “sharp but short” recession, the economists said they expect global GDP growth will trough at -8.6 percent year on year in the second quarter and recover to 3.0 percent by the first quarter of 2021as this recession is not an endogenous shock triggered by huge imbalances. It is felt that the deleveraging pressures will be more moderate. Also Policy support has been decisive, sizable, and will be effective in boosting the recovery.

Morgan Stanley expects global economic growth as measured by GDP to contract by 3 percent in 2020 before rebounding to 5.9 percent in 2021. As regards India, Morgan Stanley sees no growth (0 percent) for 2020 but expects it to rebound sharply to 7.7 percent in 2021, which makes India the fourth fastest-growing economy in the Asia ex-Japan region – only behind Philippines (2021e GDP growth at 12.6 percent), Malaysia (9.6 percent) and China (9.2 percent). “The global economy appears headed to its most severe recession in the post-war era, although there is a fair chance of a rapid rebound in the second half of 2020-21 (H2-20/2021) on unprecedented policy easing, Covid-19 treatment,” wrote analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent report co-authored by Jonathan F Garner, their chief Asia, and emerging market strategist.