Tag: gdp growth

Moody's today(11 November 2022) slashed India's GDP growth projection for 2022 to 7 percent on the expectation that global slowdown and high domestic interest rates would dampen economic momentum. For India, the 2022 real GDP growth projections have been lowered to 7 percent from 7.7 percent. The downward revision assumes higher inflation, high-interest rates, and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum by more than we had previously expected, said the Global Macro Outlook 2023-24. Moody's expects growth to decelerate to 4.8 percent in 2023 and then to rise to 6.4 percent in 2024. The Indian economy grew 8.5 percent in the 2021 calendar year, according to Moody's. As per official GDP estimates, the economy expanded 13.5 percent in April-June 2022-23, higher than the 4.10 percent growth clocked in January-March. GDP figures for the September quarter would be released at the end of this month. Read more

Analysts at Morgan Stanley, have lowered their GDP growth estimates following Nomura slashed India's 2023 GDP growth forecast to 4.7 percent from its earlier projection of 5.4 percent amid recession fears and rising interest rates. Analysts in Morgan Stanley now expect the Indian economy - as measured by GDP - to grow at 7.2 percent in fiscal 2022-23 (FY23), 40 basis points (bps) lower than their earlier estimates. For FY24, the revised projection stands at 6.4 percent - down 30 bps. Read more

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the wait for India to become a $5-trillion economic powerhouse by 2024-25 (FY25) is going to take longer than what the finance ministry had originally intended. The vision will instead be achieved in 2028-29 (FY29), revealing the IMF data, illustrating a four-year delay. Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran had in February said India would become a $5-trillion economy by 2025-26 or the following year, on the back of an 8-9 percent sustained growth rate in the real gross domestic product (GDP). Read more

The Indian frontline indices started gap-up today (1st December 2021) on the back of strong GDP growth of over 8 percent in Q2. With this, India continues to remain the fastest-growing large economies in the world. That apart, firm Asian cues also supported the sentiment on the Street. The BSE Sensex was up 659 points, or 1.15 percent, at 57,724 levels. The Nifty50, on the other hand, was at 17,183, up 200 points. IndusInd Bank (up 3.7 percent) was the top Sensex gainer, followed by Tech M, HDFC, NTPC, Tata Steel, and UltraTech Cement. Power Grid was the only loser on the index, down 0.2 percent. In the broader markets, the BSE MidCap and SmallCap indices added 0.9 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. Read more

Moody’s Investors Service in its latest report has projected that the economic growth in India will rebound strongly. It has pegged GDP growth for the nation at 9.3% and 7.9% in FY22 and FY23, respectively. Steady progress in Covid vaccination will support a sustained recovery in India’s economic activity, Moody’s analyst Sweta Patodia said. “Consumer demand, spending, and manufacturing activity is recovering following the easing of pandemic restrictions. These trends, including high commodity prices, will propel significant growth in rated companies’ EBITDA over the next 12-18 months,” Patodia added. India recently hit record Covid-19 vaccination rates. Moody notes that the vaccination drive in India has gathered pace after the second wave. Around 30% of the population of India is now fully vaccinated with two doses while around 55% of the population has received at least one dose. Improved vaccination coverage has led to stabilisation in consumer confidence. Read more

Indian finance ministry officials plan to pitch for a sovereign rating upgrade from Moody’s Investors Service in the meeting with Moody's scheduled for Sept. 28, according sources. Finance officials plan to provide details on how India will meet its budget targets for the current fiscal year, which runs through March. Moody’s cut India’s sovereign rating to Baa3 in June 2020, the lowest investment grade, citing policy challenges in addressing a prolonged economic slowdown and its deteriorating fiscal position Neither the finance ministry nor Moody’s responded to requests for comment S&P Global Ratings in May said it sees no change in India’s sovereign rating for the next two years. Read more

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath yesterday(2nd Sept.2020) tweeted a graph suggesting India's gross domestic product (GDP) may have shrunk the most among G-20 countries in the April-June quarter, at 25.6%, when compared with the previous quarter. In her tweet, accompanying the graph, Gopinath said, “In #GreatLockdown Q2 (June quarter) 2020 GDP growth at historical lows. The graph puts G20 growth numbers on a comparable scale, quarter-on-quarter non-annualised. Should expect rebounds in Q3 (September quarter) but 2020 overall will see major contractions. China recovers strongly in Q2 after a collapse in Q1 (March quarter)." The chart shows all countries except China registering GDP contraction. While China's economy is shown to have expanded by a robust 12.3 percent over the March quarter on a non-annualised basis, the UK is the most affected after India, with a GDP contraction of 20.4 percent. The US economy is shown to have shrunk 9.1 percent on a quarterly basis. Read more

The historic fall in Q1 GDP growth did not dampen the sentiment of investors who sent the benchmark indices near a percent higher in today's (1st September 2020) early deals ahead of the Supreme Court's verdict on AGR. The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 350 points, or 0.92 percent, and reclaimed the 39,000-level and the Nifty50 index was testing the 11,500-mark. IndusInd Bank (up 4%), Tata Steel, State Bank of India, and Bajaj Finance (all up 2%) were the top Sensex gainers. On the other hand, ONGC dipped 3 percent. The Supreme court is set to deliver decisions on three key issues: the tenure for staggered payment of AGR dues, whether or not Reliance Jio has to pay the hefty AGR dues bill of Rcom, and Bharti Airtel, that of Aircel and Videocon. And three, whether banks can, as creditors, transfer spectrum to a new buyer under IBC, without first taking cognizance of the dues of the government. Read more

Oxford Economics, a Global forecasting firm, yesterday (28th July 2020) said it expects India's GDP growth to lose momentum from the late third quarter (October-December) of the current fiscal as the push from the initial reopening fades. It further said India fares the worst in its Asia recovery scorecard, implying that the country will likely take the longest among major economies to converge to its pre-coronavirus growth level. Oxford Economics, in a report titled 'India: A reopening went wrong', said the central government's attempts to restart the economy are already running aground. "In our baseline, we expect GDP growth to lose momentum from late Q3 on, once the push from the initial reopening fades and, likely compounded by the ongoing pandemic and inadequate policy support, legacy economic headwinds re-assert themselves. Read more