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Moody's cuts India's GDP growth projection for 2022

Moody's cuts India's GDP growth projection for 2022

Friday, November 11, 2022

Moody's today(11 November 2022) slashed India's GDP growth projection for 2022 to 7 percent on the expectation that global slowdown and high domestic interest rates would dampen economic momentum. For India, the 2022 real GDP growth projections have been lowered to 7 percent from 7.7 percent. The downward revision assumes higher inflation, high-interest rates, and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum by more than we had previously expected, said the Global Macro Outlook 2023-24. Moody's expects growth to decelerate to 4.8 percent in 2023 and then to rise to 6.4 percent in 2024. The Indian economy grew 8.5 percent in the 2021 calendar year, according to Moody's. As per official GDP estimates, the economy expanded 13.5 percent in April-June 2022-23, higher than the 4.10 percent growth clocked in January-March. GDP figures for the September quarter would be released at the end of this month. Read more

India to become world's third-largest economy by FY28 : IMF

India to become world's third-largest economy by FY28 : IMF

Friday, October 14, 2022

$4.94 trillion that year. The following year, India’s economy would hit the $5.36-trillion mark, higher than Japan’s at $5.17 trillion. That year, India would become the third-largest economy. The size of India’s economy was $3.18 trillion in 2021-22 (FY22), while Britain’s was $3.19 trillion in 2021, according to the flagship publication by the Fund. The size of India’s economy is calculated on a financial year basis (April to March). For other economies, it is on a calendar year basis. Earlier, there was a Bloomberg report that stated that India has overtaken the UK in the fourth quarter of FY22, basing it on World Bank data. However, that comparison was made on quarterly figures, not yearly. Read more

India's FY23 GDP growth at 7.3% and inflation above 6%: S&P Global Ratings projection

India's FY23 GDP growth at 7.3% and inflation above 6%: S&P Global Ratings projection

Monday, September 26, 2022

S&P Global Ratings projected India's economic growth at 7.3% in the current fiscal with downside risks and said inflation is likely to remain above RBI's upper tolerance threshold. S&P Global Ratings today( 26 September 2022) projected India's economic growth at 7.3 percent in the current fiscal with downside risks and said inflation is likely to remain above RBI's upper tolerance threshold of 6 percent till the end of 2022. In its Economic Outlook for the Asia Pacific, S&P said India's growth next year will get support from domestic demand recovery after the coronavirus pandemic. "We have retained our India growth outlook at 7.3 percent for the fiscal year 2022-2023 and 6.5 percent for the next fiscal year, although we see the risks tilted to the downside," it said. Read more

India's GDP is estimated to rise 15.4% in the three months to June from a year ago-Bloomberg survey

India's GDP is estimated to rise 15.4% in the three months to June from a year ago-Bloomberg survey

Tuesday, August 30, 2022

Last quarter economy of India probably grew at the fastest rate in a year driven by healthy consumption, but the pace of expansion is seen slowing as policymakers prioritize rising prices overgrowth. Gross domestic product is estimated to rise 15.4% in the three months to June from a year ago, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. That’s the fastest reading since the April-June quarter of 2021 and compares with a 4.09 expansion in the previous three months. Read more

Morgan Stanley cuts India's GDP forecast to 7.2% in FY23

Morgan Stanley cuts India's GDP forecast to 7.2% in FY23

Monday, July 18, 2022

Analysts at Morgan Stanley, have lowered their GDP growth estimates following Nomura slashed India's 2023 GDP growth forecast to 4.7 percent from its earlier projection of 5.4 percent amid recession fears and rising interest rates. Analysts in Morgan Stanley now expect the Indian economy - as measured by GDP - to grow at 7.2 percent in fiscal 2022-23 (FY23), 40 basis points (bps) lower than their earlier estimates. For FY24, the revised projection stands at 6.4 percent - down 30 bps. Read more

Nomura cuts India 2023 GDP forecast to 4.7%

Nomura cuts India 2023 GDP forecast to 4.7%

Wednesday, July 13, 2022

Analysts at Nomura have cut its 2023 forecast for economic growth in India, as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP), to 4.7 percent from its earlier projection of 5.4 percent amid worries of recession picking up across the world in an inflationary environment as it expects growth to slow down over the next year. “We see rising medium-term growth headwinds from higher inflation, monetary policy tightening, dormant private capex growth and, most importantly, global growth slowdown,” Consequently, we lowered our 2023 GDP growth projection from 5.4% to 4.7%," the firm said in a note co-authored by Aurodeep Nandi and Sonal Varma. The Indian economy has been racing above its pre-pandemic level, led by a sharp recovery in the services sector, and supported by the lagged effects of easy financial conditions, a public capex push, and a rise in real bank credit growth and the improvement in growth has been broad-based across consumption, investment, industry and the external sector. Read more

Fitch revised the outlook on India's long-term foreign-currency IDR from “negative” to “stable”

Fitch revised the outlook on India's long-term foreign-currency IDR from “negative” to “stable”

Friday, June 10, 2022

Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook on India's long-term foreign-currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from “negative” to “stable” on diminished downside risks to medium-term growth. It affirmed the IDR at 'BBB-'. The revision in outlook reflects India's rapid economic recovery and easing financial sector weaknesses, despite near-term headwinds from the global commodity price shock. “We expect robust growth relative to peers in order to support credit metrics in line with the current rating,” Fitch said in a statement. Read more

World Bank cuts India's GDP forecast to 7.5% for FY23

World Bank cuts India's GDP forecast to 7.5% for FY23

Wednesday, June 8, 2022

The World Bank on Tuesday cut India's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal to 7.5% from 8 percent as rising inflation, supply chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions taper recovery. This is the second time that the World Bank has revised its GDP growth forecast for the country in the current fiscal. In April, it had cut the forecast from 8.7 percent to 8 percent and is now at 7.5 percent. "In India, growth is forecast to edge down to 7.5% in the fiscal year 2022/23, with headwinds from rising inflation, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions offsetting buoyancy in the recovery of services consumption from the pandemic," the World Bank said in its latest issue of the Global Economic Prospects. The World Bank said that growth will be supported by fixed investment undertaken by the private sector and by the government, which has introduced incentives and reforms to improve the business climate. Read more

To India’s mortgage-to-GDP ratio to cross 20 per cent, housing loans will have to grow exponentially:Deepak Parekh, chairman of HDFC Ltd

To India’s mortgage-to-GDP ratio to cross 20 per cent, housing loans will have to grow exponentially:Deepak Parekh, chairman of HDFC Ltd

Tuesday, June 7, 2022

Deepak Parekh, chairman of HDFC Ltd, today(7 June 2022) said he expected the regulator’s view on HDFC’s proposed merger with HDFC Bank to be fair and judicious, asking the stakeholders to be patient. In his note to shareholders in the annual report, the HDFC patriarch said after 45 glorious years of providing homes to millions of customers, the time was right for HDFC to find a new home. In April, HDFC and HDFC Bank announced a plan for an all-stock merger deal, for which all the regulatory approvals were expected in 15-18 months. HDFC Bank has requested the Reserve Bank of India more time to meet several regulatory requirements like cash reserve ratio, statutory liquidity ratio, and priority-sector lending targets. Read more

India's $5-trillion economy dream not before FY29: IMF data

India's $5-trillion economy dream not before FY29: IMF data

Tuesday, May 3, 2022

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the wait for India to become a $5-trillion economic powerhouse by 2024-25 (FY25) is going to take longer than what the finance ministry had originally intended. The vision will instead be achieved in 2028-29 (FY29), revealing the IMF data, illustrating a four-year delay. Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran had in February said India would become a $5-trillion economy by 2025-26 or the following year, on the back of an 8-9 percent sustained growth rate in the real gross domestic product (GDP). Read more

Fitch reduces FY23 India growth forecast to 8.5%

Fitch reduces FY23 India growth forecast to 8.5%

Tuesday, March 22, 2022

With the Omicron wave subsiding quickly, containment measures have been scaled back, setting the stage for a pick-up in GDP growth momentum in the June quarter this year, the agency said. It has revised upwards the GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal by 0.6 percentage points to 8.7 percent. "However, we have lowered our growth forecast for FY 2022-2023 to 8.5 percent (-1.8 pp) on sharply higher energy prices," Fitch said while revising up its inflation forecasts. In its Global economic Outlook-March 2022, Fitch said the post-COVID-19 pandemic recovery is being hit by a potentially huge global supply shock that will reduce growth and push up inflation. Read more

India's growth will be adversely affected by Russia-Ukraine war

India's growth will be adversely affected by Russia-Ukraine war

Monday, March 7, 2022

India's growth in the next financial year will be adversely affected by factors like Supply disruptions and trade shocks emanating from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a possible sharp rise in inflation in the next 6-8 months, fiscal pressures, and a widened current account deficit (CAD). Growth is expected to be less than 8% in FY23, economists said as they pitched for a cut in excise duties on oil to cushion the impact on inflation. The Economic Survey had forecast 8-8.5% growth in FY23 at the end of January, days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had pegged India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the year at 7.1%. Oil prices have hit their highest levels in almost a decade.HDFC Bank expects FY23 CAD at 2.3% and has lowered its FY23 growth forecast to 7.9% from 8.2% projected earlier. Read more

MARKET UPDATE: Sensex up 659 points at 57,724 levels while Nifty at 17,183, up 200 points

MARKET UPDATE: Sensex up 659 points at 57,724 levels while Nifty at 17,183, up 200 points

Wednesday, December 1, 2021

The Indian frontline indices started gap-up today (1st December 2021) on the back of strong GDP growth of over 8 percent in Q2. With this, India continues to remain the fastest-growing large economies in the world. That apart, firm Asian cues also supported the sentiment on the Street. The BSE Sensex was up 659 points, or 1.15 percent, at 57,724 levels. The Nifty50, on the other hand, was at 17,183, up 200 points. IndusInd Bank (up 3.7 percent) was the top Sensex gainer, followed by Tech M, HDFC, NTPC, Tata Steel, and UltraTech Cement. Power Grid was the only loser on the index, down 0.2 percent. In the broader markets, the BSE MidCap and SmallCap indices added 0.9 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively. Read more

Moody’s pegged GDP growth for India at 9.3% in FY22

Moody’s pegged GDP growth for India at 9.3% in FY22

Thursday, November 25, 2021

Moody’s Investors Service in its latest report has projected that the economic growth in India will rebound strongly. It has pegged GDP growth for the nation at 9.3% and 7.9% in FY22 and FY23, respectively. Steady progress in Covid vaccination will support a sustained recovery in India’s economic activity, Moody’s analyst Sweta Patodia said. “Consumer demand, spending, and manufacturing activity is recovering following the easing of pandemic restrictions. These trends, including high commodity prices, will propel significant growth in rated companies’ EBITDA over the next 12-18 months,” Patodia added. India recently hit record Covid-19 vaccination rates. Moody notes that the vaccination drive in India has gathered pace after the second wave. Around 30% of the population of India is now fully vaccinated with two doses while around 55% of the population has received at least one dose. Improved vaccination coverage has led to stabilisation in consumer confidence. Read more

India's GDP to grow 9.1% in 2022: Goldman Sachs

India's GDP to grow 9.1% in 2022: Goldman Sachs

Tuesday, November 23, 2021

Wall Street brokerage Goldman Sachs today (November 23) estimated India's GDP growth at 9.1% in 2022. After India's economy contracted by a sharp 7% in 2020, Goldman Sachs pegged the economy to grow at 8% in 2021 and 9.1% in 2022. It earlier estimated India's economic growth to 11.1% in the fiscal year to March 31, 2022. It expects consumption and investment to be the key drivers of growth in 2022. "We expect consumption to be an important contributor to growth in 2022, as the economy fully re-opens driven by a notable improvement in the virus situation and adequate progress on vaccination," Goldman Sachs said in a report. The brokerage also forecasts the headline CPI inflation to increase to 5.8% in 2022 from 5.2% in 2021, led by an increase in core inflation as manufacturers pass on input cost increases to consumers as demand recovers with full economic re-opening.

GDP to clip at 9.5% as growth impulses strong: RBI Governor

GDP to clip at 9.5% as growth impulses strong: RBI Governor

Thursday, November 11, 2021

Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das yesterday(10th Nov.2021) expressed confidence in the economy clipping at the projected 9.5 percent this fiscal as per the growth impulses and the strong fast-moving indicators. Giving all the credit for the faster-than-expected recovery of the economy to the government, Das said the central bank has only been supporting the government in reviving the economy ravaged by the pandemic. Citing a slew of measures the government has taken since the pandemic struck in March 2020, the governor specifically mentioned tax cuts on fuels, tax resolution for the telecom sector, annulling of the retro tax legislation, sale of Air India, plans to sell some of the public sector banks and PLI scheme as the major reforms and growth-drivers bearing fruits now. Read more

The Indian economy is picking up leaving behind the shadow of the pandemic: RBI report

The Indian economy is picking up leaving behind the shadow of the pandemic: RBI report

Tuesday, October 19, 2021

The Indian economy is picking up leaving behind the shadow of the pandemic as consumer demand improves and supply constraints ease due to strong Kharif agricultural production and revival in manufacturing and services. Also, softer food prices are aligning headline inflation closer to the target of 5.3 percent for FY'22. "The green shoots of revival have spilled out of the high-frequency indicators and on to the headline metrics in a recovery that is progressively solidifying," the report said. RBI's Economic Activity Index (EIA) indicates that real GDP grew by 9.6 percent in July-September 2021

India may seek a ratings upgrade from Moody’s

India may seek a ratings upgrade from Moody’s

Thursday, September 23, 2021

Indian finance ministry officials plan to pitch for a sovereign rating upgrade from Moody’s Investors Service in the meeting with Moody's scheduled for Sept. 28, according sources. Finance officials plan to provide details on how India will meet its budget targets for the current fiscal year, which runs through March. Moody’s cut India’s sovereign rating to Baa3 in June 2020, the lowest investment grade, citing policy challenges in addressing a prolonged economic slowdown and its deteriorating fiscal position Neither the finance ministry nor Moody’s responded to requests for comment S&P Global Ratings in May said it sees no change in India’s sovereign rating for the next two years. Read more

India's market capitalisation to GDP ratio hits 13-year high

India's market capitalisation to GDP ratio hits 13-year high

Thursday, September 2, 2021

The listed companies in India are worth 122 percent of India’s latest annualised gross domestic product (GDP) — the highest since December 2008, when it had hit an all-time high of around 150 percent. The ratio was 112 percent at the end of June and 103 percent at the end of March. India’s current market capitalisation (m-cap) to GDP ratio is nearly 55 percent higher than the 15-year median ratio of 79 percent. The combined m-cap of nearly 3,500 companies listed and actively traded on the BSE reached a new high of Rs 250 trillion on Tuesday and is up 120 percent since the end of March 2020, and 33 percent since the beginning of the current calendar year. This has created a wedge between stock valuations and India’s macroeconomic fundamentals. Read more

The economic toll from second wave of Covid-19 in last quarter is not as bad as feared

The economic toll from second wave of Covid-19 in last quarter is not as bad as feared

Tuesday, August 31, 2021

The economic toll from a deadly second wave of Covid-19 that swept through India last quarter doesn’t appear to be as bad as feared, with analysts still seeing the nation pulling off the world’s fastest growth this year. A better-than-expected manufacturing performance and a milder hit to services, combined with a robust pace of vaccinations, have helped keep the annual growth outlook for the economy steady at 9.2%, according to a survey. That pace is the same seen in a poll last month and the quickest among major economies. “The economic damage appears to be less than previously expected,” said an expert.“With the second outbreak brought under control, a rapid recovery appears underway,” he said. Gross domestic product(GDP) grew 21% in the three months through June from a year ago, according to the median of 45 estimates compiled by Bloomberg, mainly as a bounce back from last year’s crash.

India's GDP likely to grow 13-23% in first quarter

India's GDP likely to grow 13-23% in first quarter

Tuesday, August 17, 2021

Indian GDP growth is estimated by the economists to grow in the range of 13.1-23 percent for the first quarter (Q1) of this fiscal year. The index of industrial production (IIP) would take into account 45 percent of manufacturing while the rest will be corporate data, he said. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the chief economic advisor to the SBI group, said: “Our preliminary estimates suggest that GDP growth could be in the range of 17-18 percent for Q1.” However, he said ideally one should look at the gross value added (GVA) numbers because the GDP numbers were likely to be bolstered by strong tax collection in Q1. Net product taxes, which take out subsidies, are added to GVA to arrive at GDP. Read more

Indian firms' market capitalisation grew at the fastest pace last year:SBI

Indian firms' market capitalisation grew at the fastest pace last year:SBI

Tuesday, June 22, 2021

Last year Indian companies' market capitalization has grown at the fastest pace among major economies in spite of contraction in GDP, according to economists from SBI. Further, retail investors have shown higher interest in markets and their numbers have increased by 1.42 crore in FY21 and another 44 lakh in April and May, they said in a note, wondering if this will be a lasting behavioral change or is transitory. The economists at SBI attributed the growth in equity markets to lower returns on other financial instruments amid a low rates regime, increase in global liquidity, and even a tendency to spend more time at home because of mobility restrictions which led many to trade more. The 30-share benchmark index BSE has rallied from 28,000 points in early April 2020, to over 52,000 points at present. Read more

Nomura ups India's 2022 GDP forecast to 7.7%

Nomura ups India's 2022 GDP forecast to 7.7%

Friday, June 11, 2021

Nomura has raised India’s gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for 2022 by 0.7 percentage points (pp) to 7.7 percent in spite of the second wave of Covid infections that brought the economic activity in most cities to a standstill in the past few months. The research and brokerage house has rejigged the forecasts for consumer price inflation (CPI) and current account deficit. “We raise our 2021 and 2022 current account (CA) deficit forecasts to 1.5 percent and 1.3 percent of GDP, respectively (from 1.1 percent and 0.8 percent), and CPI inflation to 5 percent and 5.3 percent (from 4.9 percent in both years). We also pencil-in an additional 25bp repo rate hike in Q3 2022,” according to a note of Nomura. The first flush of growth indicators for May, according to Nomura, suggest a significant hit to consumption and services, with the manufacturing and export sectors being more resilient. The overall impact, Varma and Nandi said, is turning out to be less than during the first wave Read more

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee expected to hold rates and continue with an accommodative stance to encourage growth

RBI's Monetary Policy Committee expected to hold rates and continue with an accommodative stance to encourage growth

Thursday, June 3, 2021

The RBI is expected tomorrow(4th June 2021) to hold interest rates after a three-day meeting of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The policy will likely maintain an accommodative stance, as helping economic growth remains a priority. Here are key decisions to look at from the review meeting: The market will look out for RBI’s GDP growth forecast for the financial year. In the last policy review meeting of April, GDP growth for the current financial year was projected at 10.5%. For the first quarter, it was projected at 26.2%. The prediction was before the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic that has hurt economic activity due to lockdowns by state governments. Most economists and rating agencies have trimmed their forecasts following the second wave. Many see GDP growth for FY22 in single-digit now, as compared to double-digit predictions made before the second wave. Read more

Indian economy is on track to grow 10% in the year that began April 1st

Indian economy is on track to grow 10% in the year that began April 1st

Monday, May 31, 2021

The resilience of the Indian economy will be tested by its ability to overcome a devastating outbreak of Covid-19, although no one is yet doubting its potential to pull off the world’s fastest pace of growth among major economies this year. The economy is on track to grow 10% in the year that began April 1, according to the median of 12 estimates compiled by Bloomberg News. That’s after several economists downgraded their forecasts in recent weeks to factor in local curbs on activity, including in India’s political and commercial hubs. Economists say the relaxation of restrictions across states will determine the strength of the rebound, while the willingness of consumers to spend will also be key. Data likely to be released today(31st May 2021) will probably show gross domestic product grew 1% in the three months ended March, making it the second straight quarter of expansion since India exited a rare recession. Read more

Rally in domestic stocks despite contraction in FY21 GDP poses the risk of a bubble:RBI

Rally in domestic stocks despite contraction in FY21 GDP poses the risk of a bubble:RBI

Thursday, May 27, 2021

The rally in domestic stocks despite an estimated 8 percent contraction in FY21 GDP poses the risk of a bubble, according to a RBI study. RBI in a study “Is the Bubble in Stock Markets Rational?”, said the widening gap between stretched asset prices relative to prospects for recovery in real economic activity has emerged as a global policy concern while suggesting the need to consider a calibrated unwinding of stimulus once the pandemic waves are flattened and the real economy is firmly on a recovery path. The BSE Sensex hit a record high of 52,154 on February 15, which represented a 100.70 percent surge over March 23, 2020 levels. The index is hovering at 51,000-odd levels in Thursday's trade. “This order of asset price inflation in the context of the estimated 8 percent contraction in GDP in 2020-21 poses the risk of a bubble," it said. Read more

Barclays pegs India's FY22 GDP growth at 7.7%

Barclays pegs India's FY22 GDP growth at 7.7%

Tuesday, May 25, 2021

Barclays, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) has pegged India’s economic growth -for fiscal 2021-22 (FY22) – at 7.7 percent in the bear-case scenario, if the country is hit by the third wave of the Covid pandemic going ahead. The economic cost, it believes, could rise by at least a further $42.6 billion, assuming another round of similar stringent lockdowns is imposed across the country for eight weeks later this year. After factoring in recent developments, Barclays has pegged the economic cost of the latest shutdowns at $8 billion per week in May, up from $5.3 billion per week in the last two weeks of April, and well above the $3.5 billion a week estimated early in the second wave. “We believe these economic losses will remain steady at $8 billion a week through the month of May but expect them to ease from June,” Barclays said. Read more

Economists tweak their GDP projections for FY22 due to Lockdown and mobility curbs

Economists tweak their GDP projections for FY22 due to Lockdown and mobility curbs

Wednesday, April 28, 2021

Recent lockdown and mobility curbs in more Indian cities – have led to economists tweak their gross domestic growth (GDP) projections for fiscal 2021-22 (FY22). In a recent note, those at IHS Markit suggest that they expect the Indian economy (as measured by GDP) to grow at 9.6 percent in FY22. Maharashtra’s lockdown, it said, represents a significant dampener on growth, as the state accounts for 16 percent of the national GDP. “IHS Markit forecasts 9.6 percent real GDP growth in FY 2021, though the wider restrictions forecast above indicate that there is scope for further reductions in economic growth, as these measures would mean income and job losses for workers alongside significant output and revenue losses for firms, particularly in the services sector and the informal economy,” wrote Deepa Kumar, deputy head, Asia-Pacific, IHS Markit. Read more

India’s double-digit growth forecast in risk

India’s double-digit growth forecast in risk

Monday, April 26, 2021

Fifteen days back, the International Monetary Fund upgraded India’s economic growth forecast to 12.5% -- the quickest rate among major economies. Now, as Covid-19 cases surge the most globally, that bullish view is looking increasingly in doubt. In Delhi, India’s political capital, the streets are mostly empty and the markets nearly deserted with almost all shops closed in response to curbs put in place by the local administration to fight the pandemic. The scene is not so different in Mumbai, the financial hub. Aimed at controlling the COVID-19 spike, the Karnataka government today announced "close down" across the state for 14 days from Tuesday(27th April 2021) night. High-frequency data are already pointing to a deepening contraction in retail activity in the week through April 18 relative to its pre-pandemic January 2020 level, said a Bloomberg Economist. That’s a key risk for an economy where consumption makes up some 60% of gross domestic product.

GDP and GVA giving conflicting signals on economic recovery during FY21?

GDP and GVA giving conflicting signals on economic recovery during FY21?

Monday, March 1, 2021

In India, the GDP and the gross value added (GVA) seem to be giving conflicting signals on economic recovery during FY21. This happens because of the definition of these two numbers. For instance, GDP was projected to fall by 8 percent in the fiscal year 2020-21 (FY21) by the second advance estimates (AE), sharper than 7.7 percent by the first one. On the other hand, GVA is projected to fall 6.5 percent in the second estimate. The first estimates pegged the figure at less than 7.2 percent. Also, while GDP was projected to fall 1.1 percent in Q4, GVA was forecast to grow by 2.5 percent in the same quarter by the second AE. This mismatch happens due to a change in the definition of GDP in 2015 with effect from 2012-13 on the base year 2011-12. The revised method of GDP did not only change the base year, but also the way it is computed. Read more

Private sector investments will pick up soon, say experts

Private sector investments will pick up soon, say experts

Saturday, February 27, 2021

Investments in India grew after a gap of three quarters, driven by the government, while demand contracted for the third consecutive quarter during October-December (Q3) of the financial year 2020-21 (FY21). Even then, investments remained subdued, growing by a marginal 2.56 percent in Q3FY21. It had started declining even before the pandemic started impacting India’s economy. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) contracted by 6.48 percent in Q4FY20. It plunged in Q1FY21 before returning to earlier levels in Q2. according to experts investments in Q3 were driven purely by the government. This is backed up by the data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), which showed that investments in new projects declined to Rs 0.91 trillion in Q3, compared with Rs 1.15 in Q2. Investment activity reverted to growth, supported by high levels of public investment spending, said Rahul Bajoria, chief economist at Barclays India. Read more

India's GDP grows 0.4% in Q3 after shrinking for two quarters: NSO

India's GDP grows 0.4% in Q3 after shrinking for two quarters: NSO

Saturday, February 27, 2021

GDP of India returned to growth (0.4 percent)in October-December after two-quarters of contraction, the National Statistical Office (NSO) said yesterday (26th Feb.2021). In 2020-21, GDP is set to fall 8 percent against an earlier estimate of 7.7 percent, the release said. This is a “reflection of further strengthening of V-shaped recovery”, which began in Q2 of 2020-21, especially after a large GDP contraction in Q1 due to the lockdown, the Ministry of Finance said in a release. However, the cheer may not last because GDP is likely to fall 1.1 percent in Q4 if we triangulate the data available for the first three quarters with the annual estimate. A more surprising fact is that even this likely contraction in Q4 needs 29 percent real growth in government spending. Expenditure by the government fell in Q2 and Q3 when the private corporate and informal sectors in the economy were in pandemic pain, the data shows. Read more

India may beat recession even as new virus cases loom

India may beat recession even as new virus cases loom

Friday, February 26, 2021

some of the gains. However, Data shows gross domestic product expanded 0.6% in the three months ended December, after contracting for two consecutive quarters, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. That will help Asia’s third-largest economy exit an unprecedented recession. India will become one of the few major economies to post growth in the last quarter of 2020, with any improvement in the economy’s performance inversely tied to a drop in Covid-19 infections. But the nation has seen an uptick in cases over the last few weeks raising the risk of a new round of localised lockdowns. New curbs on the movement of people or restrictions on businesses are a risk to the nascent recovery, given that gains in the October-December quarter probably came from the reopening of the economy, which is primarily driven by domestic consumption. The government also boosted spending in the final months of last year to spur growth. Read more

India's fiscal position to remain weak: Moody's

India's fiscal position to remain weak: Moody's

Thursday, February 25, 2021

According to the Global rating agency, Moody's India's weak fiscal position will remain a key credit challenge in 2021. Also, the prospects for fiscal consolidation remain weak. Meanwhile, Icra, Moody's Indian affiliate, said it expects a considerable rebound in India's economic growth in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2022 (FY22) on the back of higher central government spending, and a pick-up, albeit uneven, in consumption. Overall, Icra projects that real GDP will rise 10.5 percent in FY22 and nominal GDP by 14.5 percent for fiscal 2022 as the pandemic recedes. Moody's said the central government's fiscal deficit for FY21 and FY22 should be lower than projected. This is on the back of stronger revenue generation in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021 and higher nominal GDP growth in fiscal 2022. Read more

Some expectation from Budget 2021

Some expectation from Budget 2021

Friday, January 22, 2021

Markets are now eyeing the upcoming proposals in the Union Budget – scheduled to be presented on February 01 – After a stupendous rally that has seen the S&P BSE Sensex more than double from March 2020 low and hit the 50,000 marks. The budget proposals may help revive Covid-19 impacted economy and lift the fortunes of corporate India as well. While most experts suggest the government loosen its purse strings and not worry about the fiscal deficit in a pandemic impacted year, it will be a tightrope walk for the government to increase spending without going overboard. Growth and not fiscal prudence, experts say, should be the priority for the government now. Read more

India's GDP is within the striking distance of attaining positive growth: RBI bulletin

India's GDP is within the striking distance of attaining positive growth: RBI bulletin

Thursday, January 21, 2021

India's GDP is within the striking distance of attaining positive growth, the Reserve Bank said. The Indian government launched the world's biggest vaccination drive on January 16 to protect people from COVID-19. "What will 2021 look like? The shape of the recovery will be V-shaped after all and the 'V' stands for the vaccine," said an article on the 'state of the economy' in the RBI's January Bulletin. India has launched the biggest vaccination drive in the world, backed by its comparative advantage of having the largest vaccine manufacturing capacity in the world and a rich experience of mass inoculation drives against polio and measles. "If successful, it will tilt the balance of risks upwards," said the authors who among others include RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra. Read more

FM Nirmala Sitharaman's upcoming budget may be unlike anything seen in the last 100 years

FM Nirmala Sitharaman's upcoming budget may be unlike anything seen in the last 100 years

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

FM Nirmala Sitharaman has described her upcoming budget as unlike anything seen in the last 100 years. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has been parsimonious in pump-priming the economy, for fear of a rating downgrade to junk, and may find that kicking the can down the road is no longer an option. When Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presents her budget on Feb. 1, she will not only aim to repair battered government finances and ensure demand recovers in an economy facing its worst contraction since 1952. She must also revive declining revenue and restore millions of jobs lost during the pandemic. That will be crucial to boosting consumer sentiment in a country where local demand contributes nearly 60% of gross domestic product. Read more

Govt likely to target fiscal deficit at 4% of GDP by FY26

Govt likely to target fiscal deficit at 4% of GDP by FY26

Monday, January 18, 2021

The GOI is likely to lay down a road map in the upcoming Budget to reduce its fiscal deficit to 4 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2025-26. This is necessary because there will be demands for expansionary policies, even in the next couple of years. This implies the government is set to deviate from the long-standing medium-term target of 2.5-3 percent of GDP as prescribed by amendments to the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management Act (FRBM). The government had changed the recommendations of the N K Singh Committee on fiscal consolidation and targeted bringing down the fiscal deficit to 3.1 percent of GDP by 2022-23 (FY23). However, to enable widen the fiscal deficit beyond the permissible limit under the present legislation, the government may have to propose an amendment to the FRBM Act in the Finance Bill.

Fitch revises India's FY21 GDP contraction forecast

Fitch revises India's FY21 GDP contraction forecast

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

Fitch Ratings today(8th December 2020) raised India's GDP forecast to -9.4 percent in the current fiscal year to March 2021 from a previously projected contraction of 10.5 percent after the economy staged a sharper rebound in the second quarter. In its Global Economic Outlook, Fitch said the coronavirus recession has inflicted severe economic scarring and the country needs to repair balance sheets and increase caution about long-term planning. "We now expect GDP to contract 9.4 percent in the fiscal year to end-March 2021 (FY21) (+1.1 percentage point), followed by +11 percent growth (unchanged) and +6.3 percent growth (+0.3pp) in the following years," the rating agency said. The projections compare to a GDP growth of 4.2 percent in 2019-20 (April 2019 to March 2020) fiscal and 6.7 percent annual expansion between 2015 and 2019. Read more

Moody's raises India's 2020 GDP forecast to -8.9 from -9.6%

Moody's raises India's 2020 GDP forecast to -8.9 from -9.6%

Thursday, November 12, 2020

Moody's today(12th November 2020) raised India's GDP forecast for the calendar year 2020 upwards to -8.9 percent contraction from -9.6 percent contraction forecast earlier. Similarly, India's GDP forecast for the calendar year 2021 has been revised upwards to 8.6 percent from 8.1 percent projected earlier. The report released by Moody's Investors Service attributed the reason behind better growth to the falling of coronavirus cases in the country. "The test positivity rate has fallen below 5 percent in India and below 10 percent in South Africa. Fatality rates have also steadily declined in most emerging market countries, similar to the trends in advanced economies. If these trends are sustained, greater mobility and social interactions will be likely over time. In addition, the development and dissemination of a vaccine will make the pandemic itself a less important macro factor in 2021 and 2022," the report stated. Read more

India's Q2- 2020 GDP growth most affected among G-20 countries

India's Q2- 2020 GDP growth most affected among G-20 countries

Thursday, September 3, 2020

IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath yesterday(2nd Sept.2020) tweeted a graph suggesting India's gross domestic product (GDP) may have shrunk the most among G-20 countries in the April-June quarter, at 25.6%, when compared with the previous quarter. In her tweet, accompanying the graph, Gopinath said, “In #GreatLockdown Q2 (June quarter) 2020 GDP growth at historical lows. The graph puts G20 growth numbers on a comparable scale, quarter-on-quarter non-annualised. Should expect rebounds in Q3 (September quarter) but 2020 overall will see major contractions. China recovers strongly in Q2 after a collapse in Q1 (March quarter)." The chart shows all countries except China registering GDP contraction. While China's economy is shown to have expanded by a robust 12.3 percent over the March quarter on a non-annualised basis, the UK is the most affected after India, with a GDP contraction of 20.4 percent. The US economy is shown to have shrunk 9.1 percent on a quarterly basis. Read more

MARKET UPDATE:Sensex climbed 450 points to reclaim 39,000-level and Nifty testing the 11,500-mark

MARKET UPDATE:Sensex climbed 450 points to reclaim 39,000-level and Nifty testing the 11,500-mark

Tuesday, September 1, 2020

The historic fall in Q1 GDP growth did not dampen the sentiment of investors who sent the benchmark indices near a percent higher in today's (1st September 2020) early deals ahead of the Supreme Court's verdict on AGR. The S&P BSE Sensex climbed 350 points, or 0.92 percent, and reclaimed the 39,000-level and the Nifty50 index was testing the 11,500-mark. IndusInd Bank (up 4%), Tata Steel, State Bank of India, and Bajaj Finance (all up 2%) were the top Sensex gainers. On the other hand, ONGC dipped 3 percent. The Supreme court is set to deliver decisions on three key issues: the tenure for staggered payment of AGR dues, whether or not Reliance Jio has to pay the hefty AGR dues bill of Rcom, and Bharti Airtel, that of Aircel and Videocon. And three, whether banks can, as creditors, transfer spectrum to a new buyer under IBC, without first taking cognizance of the dues of the government. Read more

India's GDP growth to lose momentum from late third quarter: Oxford Economics report

India's GDP growth to lose momentum from late third quarter: Oxford Economics report

Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Oxford Economics, a Global forecasting firm, yesterday (28th July 2020) said it expects India's GDP growth to lose momentum from the late third quarter (October-December) of the current fiscal as the push from the initial reopening fades. It further said India fares the worst in its Asia recovery scorecard, implying that the country will likely take the longest among major economies to converge to its pre-coronavirus growth level. Oxford Economics, in a report titled 'India: A reopening went wrong', said the central government's attempts to restart the economy are already running aground. "In our baseline, we expect GDP growth to lose momentum from late Q3 on, once the push from the initial reopening fades and, likely compounded by the ongoing pandemic and inadequate policy support, legacy economic headwinds re-assert themselves. Read more

Indian GDP may not shrink too severely: DEA Secy

Indian GDP may not shrink too severely: DEA Secy

Friday, July 24, 2020

Economic Affairs Secretary Tarun Bajaj Speaking at an event organised by industry body Ficci, said that based on tax collections so far, India’s economic contraction in this fiscal year might be less severe than anticipated and that the proposal of a ‘bad bank’ had been discussed internally, but no decision had been taken. “Currently, there is no proposal for debt monetisation on the table. Questions on fiscal position and debt monetisation plan should be asked after three-four months,” said Bajaj. Economists, including former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan, and former advisor to the Prime Minister, Rathin Roy, have advocated that the government can get the RBI to monetise deficit, provided it has a clear expenditure plan on where it wants to spend the resources it raises. Read more

Global GDP growth will trough at -8.6 per cent YoY in the second quarter

Global GDP growth will trough at -8.6 per cent YoY in the second quarter

Tuesday, June 16, 2020

The global economy is in a new expansion cycle and output will return to pre-coronavirus crisis levels by the fourth quarter, according to Morgan Stanley economists. “We have greater confidence in our call for a V-shaped recovery, given recent upside surprises in growth data and policy action,” economists led by Chetan Ahya wrote in a mid-year outlook research note on June 14. Predicting a “sharp but short” recession, the economists said they expect global GDP growth will trough at -8.6 percent year on year in the second quarter and recover to 3.0 percent by the first quarter of 2021as this recession is not an endogenous shock triggered by huge imbalances. It is felt that the deleveraging pressures will be more moderate. Also Policy support has been decisive, sizable, and will be effective in boosting the recovery.

Is there a nagging worry behind the stocks rally on Dalal Street ?

Is there a nagging worry behind the stocks rally on Dalal Street ?

Tuesday, June 2, 2020

Behind the stocks rally seen on Dalal Street since late April lurks a nagging worry about growth prospects of the economy, which puts the market at risk of a sudden U-turn. A top Nomura analyst on Tuesday flagged this worry, saying that the equity risk premium remains high, which shows that investors are a worried lot. “India needs a big push from the government to revive the COVID-19-hit economy,” say experts. The government needs to spend on infrastructure in a big way to revive growth as corporates are not investing at this point in time. This came a day after Moody's Investors Service downgraded India’s sovereign credit rating for the first time in more than two decades. The latest official data showed the economy grew at 4.2 percent in FY20, the slowest rate in 11 years. Read more

India's economic growth falls for a third successive year, fiscal deficit widens to 4.6%

India's economic growth falls for a third successive year, fiscal deficit widens to 4.6%

Saturday, May 30, 2020

The central govt has officially admitted that the fiscal deficit last year was as large as 4.6 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), much wider than the 3.8 percent provided in the Budget presented in February earlier this year. On the economy front, the provisional estimates released on Friday showed that the rate of growth in India’s GDP fell steeply to 4.2 percent in 2019-20 from 6.1 percent in 2018-19. Look at it another way, the rate of growth for India’s GDP has more than halved in just three years – from 8.2 percent recorded in 2016-17, the year of demonetization. There was no respite in 2017-18, either, when the GDP grew by only 7 percent. Read more

First full-year contraction in 4 decades all set to be reality for India

First full-year contraction in 4 decades all set to be reality for India

Friday, May 22, 2020

RBI governor Shaktikanta Das today said that GDP growth would likely remain in the negative territory in 2020-21 lending credence to the dire forecasts rating agencies and brokerages. Das said he was optimistic about a possible pick-up in growth impulses in the second half, but added that everything was going to depend on how the pandemic situation plays out. In the second half, Das said, the economy could get a boost from ideal conditions created by fiscal, monetary, and administrative actions taken so far — possibly leading to a change in the situation. Read more

Morgan Stanley sees 3% contraction in global GDP

Morgan Stanley sees 3% contraction in global GDP

Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Morgan Stanley expects global economic growth as measured by GDP to contract by 3 percent in 2020 before rebounding to 5.9 percent in 2021. As regards India, Morgan Stanley sees no growth (0 percent) for 2020 but expects it to rebound sharply to 7.7 percent in 2021, which makes India the fourth fastest-growing economy in the Asia ex-Japan region – only behind Philippines (2021e GDP growth at 12.6 percent), Malaysia (9.6 percent) and China (9.2 percent). “The global economy appears headed to its most severe recession in the post-war era, although there is a fair chance of a rapid rebound in the second half of 2020-21 (H2-20/2021) on unprecedented policy easing, Covid-19 treatment,” wrote analysts at Morgan Stanley in a recent report co-authored by Jonathan F Garner, their chief Asia, and emerging market strategist.

Increase in tax-burden on India's GDP may hit consumption and savings

Increase in tax-burden on India's GDP may hit consumption and savings

Monday, May 11, 2020

The latest increase in indirect taxes on commodities like diesel, petrol, and alcohol by the central and various state governments is likely to lead to a further rise in the tax burden on India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In FY19, indirect taxes (net of subsidies) accounted for nearly 10 percent of GDP, up from 9.3 percent a year ago and a low of 6.1 percent in FY10. This, say, economists, will negatively impact household disposable income and may hit consumer demand and savings and investments by the household. Disposable income is the portion of GDP that accrues to households that they consume, save, or invest. If it grows slower than the overall GDP or declines, households will either cut back on consumption, or savings & investments, or both," says experts. Read more

India’s GDP is likely to grow 2 per cent for the full financial year

India’s GDP is likely to grow 2 per cent for the full financial year

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

"India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will contract in the first quarter, but is likely to grow 2% for the full financial year and that a stimulus is expected “soon,” said Chief economic adviser KV Subramanian. But he cautioned against demands for government support similar to that provided by other nations as the cost would be too high. Comparisons with stimulus packages in other countries were invalid, he said. He drew parallels with the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, suggesting a sharp revival. “From an epidemiological perspective and from the magnitude of the pandemic, the Spanish flu is a reasonable proxy to use and because there was a V-shaped recovery, I think it is reasonable to say that we can expect the same,” Subramanian said.

Coronavirus impact: OECD slashes India's FY21 growth forecast to 5.1%

Coronavirus impact: OECD slashes India's FY21 growth forecast to 5.1%

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Yesterday (2-3-2020) lowered India’s GDP growth forecast to 5.1 percent, from its earlier projection of 6.2 percent, for 2020 on concerns over the impact of deadly coronavirus on the domestic as well as the global economy. According to the latest OECD Forecasts, India’s real GDP growth is expected at 5.1 percent during the fiscal year starting April 1, 2020, and improve to 5.6 percent in the following year. The latest projection for 2020-21 is 1.1 percentage points lower than the November 2019 forecast. The OECD has projected India’s growth at 4.9 percent for the financial year ending March 2020. As per the report Global economic growth will sink to levels not seen in over a decade as the coronavirus outbreak hammers demand and supply, challenging central banks and governments to respond to a fast-changing situation, according to the OECD.

India's GDP growth at 4.7% in Q3 of FY2020, marginal improvement over Q2

India's GDP growth at 4.7% in Q3 of FY2020, marginal improvement over Q2

Saturday, February 29, 2020

India’s GDP growth in the October-December quarter of 2019 (Q3 of FY20) stood at 4.7 percent, as per the data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) on 28th Feb. The data also showed that projections for economic growth in FY2020 had been at 5 percent in the second advance estimates. The rate of the country’s economic growth had stood at a six-year low of 4.5 percent in the previous quarter (Q2) and 6.6 percent in the same quarter a year earlier (Q3 of FY19). India’s GDP growth in FY2019 had stood at 6.8 percent.

Tag: gdp

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