Barclays, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) has pegged India’s economic growth -for fiscal 2021-22 (FY22) – at 7.7 percent in the bear-case scenario, if the country is hit by the third wave of the Covid pandemic going ahead. The economic cost, it believes, could rise by at least a further $42.6 billion, assuming another round of similar stringent lockdowns is imposed across the country for eight weeks later this year.
After factoring in recent developments, Barclays has pegged the economic cost of the latest shutdowns at $8 billion per week in May, up from $5.3 billion per week in the last two weeks of April, and well above the $3.5 billion a week estimated early in the second wave. “We believe these economic losses will remain steady at $8 billion a week through the month of May but expect them to ease from June,” Barclays said.
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