Where is the coronavirus headed in India?
Published On: Monday, January 11, 2021 | By: Team KnowMyStock
There has been a steady decline in the daily number of cases and deaths, since the peak of mid-September in India when govt readies for a massive mass immunisation drive. Less than 300 daily coronavirus deaths were recorded in the country for the last 16 days with the national recovery rate improving to 96.42 percent, according to data from the union health ministry. Given that we will never know the true numbers during the pandemic or even after it, the trajectory is important and it has been on the downward slope, which leads to a pressing question- Is the worst of the pandemic over? It is hard to say if the first wave is ending and if there would be a second one. That depends on the number of people who have been exposed to the virus. Considering that India went through two important periods without any significant upturn – Dussehra to Diwali festive season and elections that followed, experts say it is safe to assume that the epidemic is under control.
And India is relatively well placed as a percentage of population and in terms of the mortality rates. It currently stands at 1.44 per cent. The anticipated horror based on western modelling turned out a to be a little off the mark.
Even with a mutant, the country is not seeing the sudden spike in cases, and that is likely because, unlike early last year, authorities have not been caught off guard. People are more aware now, and public health measures were already in place when the variant entered, even though it is highly likely that the new mutant cases are under-reported.
"Outbreak modelling for India suggests about 30 per cent overall infection, with 50 per cent in large and densely populated cities. Probably there would be enough infected people and we will not see another peak", say experts.
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