Sharper-than-expected economic recovery can fuel further rally in domestic cyclicals, industrials, and financials

Going ahead, given the sharper-than-expected economic recovery in India, analysts say, can fuel a further rally in domestic cyclicals, industrials, and financials as global central banks continue with their easy money policy, which will ensure ample liquidity in emerging markets, including India.

“Calendar year 2020 (CY20) was all about COVID and staying safe – health-wise and in the markets. CY21 is seeing people take risks. As a result, cyclical stocks are doing well, which are momentum-driven high beta plays. The ‘defensive’ story has played out well in 2020 and investors are now looking at next avenues of growth. Hence, there was a churn from defensives to cyclicals,” explains G Chokkalingam, founder and chief investment officer at Equinomics Research.

A large part of the recent stock churn in India has been on account of the budget proposals. Government’s divestment agenda, proposal to set up a ‘bad bank’, privatisation of select public sector banks (PSBs) and focus on infrastructure have been the key catalysts that have triggered a rally in the related stocks.

“Defensives such as Pharma, IT, and FMCG could take a pause. However, Pharma and IT can still find a place in the portfolio. Especially, in IT sector, growth is likely to improve in this year, deal visibility is stronger, and IT companies should see steady earnings growth. Although Pharma and IT could underperform on a relative basis, they could provide protection in case of any downturn in the market,” say experts.

Even at the global level, fund managers are now betting on a V-shaped economic recovery, which they believe can fuel a rally in cyclical stocks. BofA surveyed 225 mutual fund, hedge fund and pension fund managers globally with $645 billion worth of assets under management (AUM) between February 5 and 11, 2021. Findings of the fund manager survey (FMS) suggest investors globally are preferring cyclical stocks, high exposure to commodities, emerging markets, industrials and banks relative to the past 10 years.