Initial signs indicate monsoon 2022 could be 'normal':Skymet
Published On: Monday, February 21, 2022 | By: Team KnowMyStock
Skymet, the private weather forecasting agency, today(21st Feb.2022) said that the 2022 southwest monsoon could be ‘normal’, finishing around the mid-way mark of the normal range of 96-104 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). LPA for the four-month southwest monsoon season that starts from June is 881 millimeters. “Monsoon has large inter-annual fluctuations in its arrival, intensity, duration, and withdrawal. It is rather early to decode all these aspects at this stage. But there are precursors to get an early glimpse and gauge its health during the four-month-long season,” Skymet said in a statement. It added that back-to-back La Nina seen in the last two monsoon seasons had started shrinking now, which also means that monsoon 2022 is going to be a devolving La Nina to start with and turn neutral later.
That apart, the negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are weakening.
And this warming inclination of the Pacific Ocean, albeit within neutral limits, may not lead to an above normal or excess rainfall but chances of a ‘corrupt’ monsoon are also ruled out, the weather forecasting agency said.
Skymet said though it is slightly premature to share the collated figures but suffice to present preliminary guidance. A more comprehensive analysis of the prospects of 2022 southwest monsoon will be released in April.
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