India's GDP likely to grow 13-23% in first quarter
Published On: Tuesday, August 17, 2021 | By: Team KnowMyStock
Indian GDP growth is estimated by the economists to grow in the range of 13.1-23 percent for the first quarter (Q1) of this fiscal year. The index of industrial production (IIP) would take into account 45 percent of manufacturing while the rest will be corporate data, he said. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the chief economic advisor to the SBI group, said: “Our preliminary estimates suggest that GDP growth could be in the range of 17-18 percent for Q1.” However, he said ideally one should look at the gross value added (GVA) numbers because the GDP numbers were likely to be bolstered by strong tax collection in Q1. Net product taxes, which take out subsidies, are added to GVA to arrive at GDP.
Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA, said: “Based on our assessment of volumes and available earnings, we forecast GVA growth in Q1 FY22 at 16-17 per cent and believe this to be a relatively good gauge of the economic performance than GDP in the current year. Given the sharp rise in indirect taxes, we anticipate that the National Statistical Office may peg GDP expansion at a deceptively high 19-20 per cent.”
The IIP was up 45 per cent in the first quarter due to the 134.63 per cent rise in April owing to a low base. However, the PMI for manufacturing was 51.46 in the first quarter. A reading above 50 indicates expansion. The PMI was 48.1 in June, which is contraction. Similarly, the PMI services was 47.2 in April-June.
We are on Telegram!
JOIN our telegram channel to receive updates on Financial News and Stock and FNO Tips.
Click Here!
Follow Us On:
