Fifteen days back, the International Monetary Fund upgraded India’s economic growth forecast to 12.5% -- the quickest rate among major economies. Now, as Covid-19 cases surge the most globally, that bullish view is looking increasingly in doubt.
In Delhi, India’s political capital, the streets are mostly empty and the markets nearly deserted with almost all shops closed in response to curbs put in place by the local administration to fight the pandemic. The scene is not so different in Mumbai, the financial hub. Aimed at controlling the COVID-19 spike, the Karnataka government today announced "close down" across the state for 14 days from Tuesday(27th April 2021) night.
High-frequency data are already pointing to a deepening contraction in retail activity in the week through April 18 relative to its pre-pandemic January 2020 level, said a Bloomberg Economist. That’s a key risk for an economy where consumption makes up some 60% of gross domestic product.