Indian economy was growing steadily before Omicron hit

There are no economy-crippling restrictions yet, but the capital New Delhi canceled all Christmas and New Year’s festivities and joined some other states in reimposing night curfew as cases ticked up. The federal government separately announced widening the vaccination drive to include most teenagers and providing booster shots to vulnerable sections.

1. Business Activity: Activity in India’s dominant services sector expanded for the fourth consecutive month, while the manufacturing purchasing managers index climbed to 57.6, the best showing since January, according to IHS Markit. That helped lift the composite index to the highest level in about a decade, with new orders also notching their top reading since February 2012.

2. Exports: Exports grew 27% year-on-year in November, slower than the 43% pace seen in the previous month. Imports rose 57%, reflecting a surge in demand for gold, iron and steel, machinery, and electronic goods as economic activity rebounds.

3. Consumer Activity: Passenger car sales fell for a third straight month, as the global chip shortage hit production. That hiccup apart, RBI data showed demand for bank credit grew 7% in November from a year earlier, reflecting momentum in consumption trends. Liquidity conditions still showed a surplus last month, implying easy credit availability.

4. Industrial Activity: Industrial production expanded 3.2% in October from a year earlier, a slower pace than during the first five months of the fiscal year as the favorable base effect wears off.

Output at infrastructure industries, which makes up 40% of the industrial production index, expanded 7.5% in October. Both data are published with a one-month lag.