Barclays pegs India's FY22 GDP growth at 7.7%
Published On: Tuesday, May 25, 2021 | By: Team KnowMyStock
Barclays, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) has pegged India’s economic growth -for fiscal 2021-22 (FY22) – at 7.7 percent in the bear-case scenario, if the country is hit by the third wave of the Covid pandemic going ahead. The economic cost, it believes, could rise by at least a further $42.6 billion, assuming another round of similar stringent lockdowns is imposed across the country for eight weeks later this year. After factoring in recent developments, Barclays has pegged the economic cost of the latest shutdowns at $8 billion per week in May, up from $5.3 billion per week in the last two weeks of April, and well above the $3.5 billion a week estimated early in the second wave. “We believe these economic losses will remain steady at $8 billion a week through the month of May but expect them to ease from June,” Barclays said.
Under this‘bear-case’ scenario, Barclays estimates GDP growth would be lowered by a further 150 basis points (bp), dragging FY22 growth down to 7.7 per cent y-o-y. The bulk of the economic loss, it said, will be felt in the first (April - June) quarter of FY22.
Tags: Barclays GDP Indian economy economic growth -for fiscal 2021-22 economic cost of the latest shutdowns
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